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New data suggests that China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaked in 2023 and will start declining from this year onwards, two separate analyses have found.
First, modelling by BloombergNEF found that China will likely add more than enough wind and solar capacity this year to cover electricity demand growth and push coal output lower. Along with lower fossil fuel demand in Europe, this could result in global emissions falling as much as 2.5% in 2024.
Then in late May, an analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) came to the same conclusion, citing recent data releases.
After temporarily rebounding in the wake of Covid-19 lockdowns, China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell 3% in March thanks to the renewables boom and slowdown in the property sector, which reduced demand for steel and cement.
This trend was likely maintained through April as well, reinforcing the view that peak emissions are now in the rearview mirror, Myllyvirta wrote in an analysis first published by Carbon Brief.
“Oil demand growth also ground to a halt, indicating that the post-Covid rebound may have run its course,” he added.
That’s partly thanks to the rapid shift towards electric vehicles, which now comprise 11% of all cars on China’s roads, and nearly half of new car sales.
“A 2023 peak in China’s CO2 emissions is possible if the buildout of clean energy sources is kept at the record levels seen last year,” Myllyvirta says. The government’s target was for emissions to peak by 2030.
China’s wind and solar boom pushed the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation to 63.6% in March, from 67.4% a year earlier, despite strong growth in demand.
Close to 300 gigawatts of new wind and solar was connected to the grid in 2023, and additions accelerated in the first three months of 2024, with a 40% increase compared with a year before.
Rooftop systems account for a large share of new solar capacity, in part thanks to the country’s innovative public-private partnership model, where large developers – often state-owned entities – work with networks of smaller local players, whose job is to identify suitable rooftops and secure project development rights.
Here’s how China became the world’s renewable energy powerhouse.
