Poland, which is considered a laggard in climate action due to its unusually heavy reliance on coal, has made substantial progress in shifting to cleaner energy technologies and ditching that label, a new analysis shows.
While coal remains the largest component of the electricity mix, its share fell to an all-time low of 60.5% in 2023 — a 10 percentage point decline in a single year, according to a new report by Polish climate and energy research group Forum Energii.
On the other hand, renewables produced a record 27% of the nation’s electricity. That’s up from 12.8% just five years before thanks to a 40-fold increase in solar output and a doubling of wind production over the period, per data collated by Ember.
But it’s early days yet. The main governing party has pledged to lift the share of renewables in the electricity mix to 68% by 2030.
That will help with the decarbonisation of other sectors too, including buildings. Poland has been a leading adopter of electric heat pumps in recent years thanks to a subsidy programme and bans on coal-based heating systems in some parts of the country.
Yes, but: Forum Energii notes that Poland’s energy transition is largely being driven by market forces and reforms that have removing obstacles for clean energy developers, rather than through a concerted push by the state. The laissez–faire approach brings risks, the group says.
“Changes in the power sector are accelerating, but they are the result of mega-trends and the market, more than a conscious state plan,” says Forum Energii president Joanna Pandera. “Good coordination is needed so that changes in generation are followed by changes on the grid and market organisation side, including improved flexibility.”
Poland’s coal plants aren’t suited to ramping up and down their output as needed, and there’s a growing shortage of flexible facilities such as grid-scale batteries, according to the group’s assessment. This is putting the security of the entire power system at risk, while also exacerbating the curtailment (wastage) of renewable energy generation at times.
“The Polish discussion around the transition focuses on the topic of closure and the end of coal-fired power plants, which is generating resistance,” Pandera says.
“We don’t talk enough about new low-carbon technologies, including those that will provide dispatchable capacity. We face the spectre of an investment gap, yet a secure and sustainable supply of electricity is a prerequisite for the electrification of the entire economy. It becomes a huge challenge to mobilise investment, both in power companies and by private investors, including households.”
Meanwhile, less progress has been made in transitioning other sectors, such as heating, transport, and industry, Forum Energii says.
As such, Poland needs a single entity to manage and coordinate the overall energy transition.
The Ministry of Climate and Environment, which is developing a new national energy and climate plan, has an opportunity to fulfil that task and set a clear direction, Forum Energii says.
A faster transition would curb the need for imported fossil fuels, which account for 43% of the energy consumed in the country.
