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By Jan Rosenow and Claudia Kemfert
To achieve climate neutrality by 2045, Germany must eliminate natural gas for heating within the next 20 years. Alternative gases like hydrogen or biomethane are neither available in sufficient quantities nor will they be in the foreseeable future. Therefore, phasing out gas networks is a key element in transitioning to a climate-neutral energy system.
Cities like Mannheim and Hamburg are leading the way. Mannheim plans to shut down its gas network completely by 2035. Energy provider MVV justifies this decision with both environmental and economic reasons: gas heating is incompatible with climate goals and will become increasingly unprofitable due to rising CO₂ prices and declining user numbers. Instead, the city is expanding its district heating network, with heat pumps as an alternative. To support residents, Mannheim has introduced a generous subsidy programme, offering households up to €10,000 for switching from gas heating.
Hamburg is also pursuing ambitious plans. A detailed heat mapping initiative is identifying the best energy solutions for different neighbourhoods, assessing which areas can be disconnected from the gas grid. Concrete plans are expected by 2026. These examples highlight how cities are responding to local conditions while working towards a common goal: reducing fossil fuel dependence.
The transition to climate-neutral heating poses significant technical and social challenges. Expanding district heating infrastructure and electricity grids, as well as installing heat pumps, requires substantial investment and time. Public acceptance is also crucial. Many people are sceptical about gas grid shutdowns, mainly due to the cost of transitioning. To reduce resistance, cities like Mannheim are implementing extensive public information campaigns and financial support. These efforts not only ease the burden but also build trust in new technologies — providing a model for other municipalities.
The debate over hydrogen as a possible alternative has added to public uncertainty. It is often suggested that existing gas grids could easily be converted to hydrogen, but research indicates this is technically and economically problematic. Hydrogen has lower energy density, higher flow resistance, and can corrode existing gas infrastructure. Moreover, its production is energy-intensive and inefficient, making it unsuitable for the heating sector. Over 50 independent studies conclude that hydrogen will play little to no role in building heating. Households hoping for hydrogen may ultimately be forced to replace their heating systems again.
Despite the challenges, phasing out gas networks presents major opportunities. In the long term, renewable energy and efficient heating technologies can lower energy costs and reduce dependence on gas imports, enhancing energy security and cutting CO₂ emissions.
Germany is not alone in this transition. Denmark will ban natural gas heating in buildings by 2030. Swiss cities like Basel, Zurich, and Winterthur have announced full or partial gas grid shutdowns. In the Netherlands, municipalities have been developing heat transition plans for years, gradually phasing out gas networks. More countries are likely to follow: the revised EU Gas Directive requires member states to ensure that gas network operators develop decommissioning plans if a significant decline in gas consumption is foreseeable.
Mannheim’s comprehensive approach, combining infrastructure transformation with financial incentives, provides a roadmap for other cities. Phasing out gas grids is a crucial step toward climate neutrality — but its success will depend on clear strategy, political commitment, and public support.
- Jan Rosenow is vice president for global strategy at the Regulatory Assistance Project, while Claudia Kemfert is professor of energy economics and sustainability at the Hertie School of Governance and head of the department of energy, transportation, and environment at the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW Berlin).
- This article was first published here. It was reproduced with permission from the authors.
