EU now ‘nearly’ on track to meet global climate targets thanks to its Green Deal

Since the 2019 European Union elections, the bloc has significantly improved its climate performance, with its emissions trajectory now consistent with limiting global temperature rise to a little above 2°C by the end of the century — a more than 1°C improvement in just five years, a Climate Action Tracker analysis has found.

The vast improvement is largely attributable to the European Green Deal, which introduced a broad set of policies aimed at reducing the EU’s net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, compared with 1990 levels.

Among other things, the Green Deal includes measures to rapidly scale up renewable energy, reform and strengthen the region’s emissions trading system, boost energy efficiency programmes, and require that all new cars sold must be emission-free by 2035.

Much progress has been made on the shift to clean electricity in particular. In April 2024, the share of fossil fuels in the EU’s electricity mix fell to a historic monthly low of just 23%.

“While EU emissions are still not on a path compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, this region — one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters — is in a good place to now go the extra step necessary to help the world avoid the worst impacts of climate change,” says Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific assessment body.

Its analysis is based on projected temperature increases in a scenario where all other countries follow a similar level of ambition.

In 2019, before the Green Deal was implemented, the EU was on course to reduce emissions by just 33% by the end of the decade. It’s now on track for a 51% cut.

But to be fully aligned with a scenario in which temperatures are limited to a 1.5°C increase, the EU would need to cut emissions by at least 62% by 2030 while also ramping up its international climate finance disbursements.

“The EU has made significant progress on climate policy in this closing election cycle,” Climate Action Tracker says. “Europeans have the choice in the upcoming elections in early June 2024 to continue this success.”