Renewables will usurp coal as the world’s leading source of power generation in 2025, according to a new analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The share of renewable technologies in the global electricity mix is expected to reach 35% in 2025 — a 5 percentage point increase in two years. On the other hand, coal’s share will decline to 33% next year, per the IEA’s projections, which are often criticised for underestimating the growth of wind and solar PV.
The world will add enough wind and solar capacity next year to power both France and Italy, with the two technologies increasing their share of the global electricity mix to 18% in 2025 — up from a mere 4% a decade earlier.
And with deployments of clean energy technologies likely to at least match rapid power demand growth, carbon emissions from the electricity sector will fall from 2025 — or even this year if China’s hydro plants continue to recover after last year’s drought, the IEA says. That’s thanks to coal-fired generation having reached its peak amid the renewables boom.
The emissions intensity of the world’s power system will decrease from 460 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour in 2023 to 425g CO2/kWh in 2025.
The European Union is expected to see the highest rate of decline in emissions intensity, from 205g CO2/kWh in 2023 to 155g CO2/kWh next year.
The share of renewables in Europe’s electricity generation mix is expected to reach 50% in 2024 and 52% in 2025, up from 44% in 2023. Coal-fired output will slump 24% in 2024 and gas 10%.
Yes, but: The decarbonisation of the power sector still isn’t happening fast enough, partly because demand for electricity is advancing quickly due to population growth, artificial intelligence, climate change, and the shift to electric vehicles.
“Growth in global electricity demand this year and next is set to be among the fastest in the past two decades, highlighting the growing role of electricity in our economies as well as the impacts of severe heatwaves,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security.
“It’s encouraging to see clean energy’s share of the electricity mix continuing to rise, but this needs to happen at a much faster rate to meet international energy and climate goals. At the same time, it’s crucial to expand and reinforce grids to provide citizens with secure and reliable electricity supply — and to implement higher energy efficiency standards to reduce the impacts of increased cooling demand on power systems.”
