Global energy emissions to peak this year, says DNV

Global energy-related emissions are likely to peak this year thanks largely to faster-than-expected growth in solar PV and battery installations, says advisory and risk management firm DNV.

“Emissions peaking is, of course, good news, and a milestone for humanity,” says DNV’s CEO, Remi Eriksen.

The solar boom has now reached a point where coal-fired power output will decline in 2024, the group’s modelling shows. Solar’s rise has been fuelled by rapid cost declines, and, more recently, plunging battery prices as well.

That, in turn, is facilitating the shift to electric vehicles. “EV uptake is so high that peak gasoline in China is behind us and global peak oil is expected within a couple of years,” DNV says, adding that electric models will likely account for 50% of new car sales worldwide by 2031.

Yes, but: While peak emissions is a critical inflection point, emissions aren’t expected to decline nearly fast enough to keep global warming to relatively safe levels.

Global energy-related CO2 emissions will fall just 5% by 2030, compared with 2023 levels, and will halve by 2050 — two decades behind target.

As a result, temperatures will “most likely” rise 2.2°C above preindustrial levels by 2100. That would be catastrophic, scientists warn.

To accelerate decarbonisation, Eriksen argues that policymakers may have to rethink the trade barriers they’ve imposed to protect local manufacturers of clean energy components, who would otherwise struggle to compete with Chinese firms.

“Fully protecting all homegrown clean tech supply chains may come at too high a premium that risks slowing progress on decarbonisation significantly,” he says. “Policymakers must strike an admittedly very difficult balance between national security, economic goals, and Paris Agreement ambitions.”

More progress will also be needed in “hard to abate” sectors, including manufacturing, shipping, and aviation. Green hydrogen, which is seen as a key tool in the decarbonisation of these industries, is struggling to gain sufficient traction, due in part to inadequate carbon pricing and a lack of support from governments.