2024 will be the first full year in which low-carbon renewables — wind, solar and hydro — generate more electricity than fossil fuels in the UK, with wind energy close to overtaking gas as the single-largest source of power in the country, according to research group Ember.
The context: The UK closed its last coal-fired power plant at the end of September, and has significantly reduced its gas usage thanks to rising output from renewables, soft power demand, and cheaper electricity imports.
The new government wants to largely eliminate carbon emissions from the power system by 2030, and the system operator says less than 5% of total power production will be from unabated fossil fuels by then if all goes according to plan.
The latest: Wind, solar and hydropower are set to generate a combined 37% of the UK’s electricity in 2024 (103 TWh), compared to 35% from fossil fuels (97 TWh), according to Ember’s modelling. Including bioenergy (which is not a low-carbon technology), renewables will provide 51% of the UK’s power in 2024, while low-carbon nuclear will account for 14% of output.
Wind power is expected to comprise 29% of the mix, just behind gas (30%). And the technology is set for steady growth, with 3.8GW of offshore wind generating capacity scheduled to be completed by 2026.
“This long-awaited milestone is a testament to how much progress the UK has made,” says Frankie Mayo, senior energy and climate analyst for the UK at Ember.
“It’s time to seize the moment, to cut reliance on expensive gas with new renewables, storage, and grid upgrades,” Mayo adds. “With the phase-out of coal power completed this year, reducing gas use is the next big opportunity for the country.”
And despite the rapid shift from fossil fuels, the UK’s power system remains resilient, with the winter capacity margin at its largest for five years.
“Clean power development can therefore cut reliance on expensive gas imports while retaining network security, supported by energy storage and interconnection with neighbouring countries,” Mayo says.
