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Electric vehicle sales are heading for another record year in 2024, despite all the talk of waning interest, according to an analysis by BloombergNEF.
About 16.7 million units — including both battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles — will be sold this year, up from 13.9 million in 2023, according to the research group’s forecasts.
This does indicate a slightly slower growth rate than before, yet it’s hardly the steep drop-off that many were predicting.
Some markets, including Germany, have seen an outright decline in sales linked to subsidy reductions, though that’s been more than offset by an EV boom in other countries.
China remains the biggest driving force behind the global EV market, says Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport at BloombergNEF. The world’s second-largest economy accounts for six out of every 10 plug-in vehicles sold globally so far this year, and EVs now make up more than 50% of domestic car sales there.
“Still, there’s an important asterisk beside the China numbers — much of the growth has been driven by plug-in hybrids and range-extended EVs, rather than battery-electric vehicles that powered past growth waves,” McKerracher said in a statement. Sales of fully electric models are up 18% in China so far this year, while total plug-in sales are up 37%.
“This is perhaps the most substantive part of the EV slowdown narrative. Global battery EV sales will still be up this year, but are growing slower than plug-in hybrids due to sales in China.”
Meanwhile, sales in Europe are expected to rise substantially in 2025 as automakers prepare to release more affordable models amid tightening emissions targets in the bloc.
Elsewhere, the US remains a laggard, although sales hit a fresh record in the third quarter. EVs will likely account for more than 10% of vehicle sales in that market in 2024 for the first time.
“When things are changing quickly, it’s important to read more than just the headlines and dig into the numbers,” McKerracher said. “EV sales growth is slowing, but volumes are still going up and will make up 20% of global vehicle sales this year.”
That’s consistent with forecasts from other research groups, including the International Energy Agency and Dutch bank ING.
See also: China’s EV and high-speed rail boom is curbing global oil demand, data shows
